The Dallas Cowboys love Dwayne Harris, but Victor Cruz has little in common with this third year back- up receiver. Cruz is a Pro Bowler, a Super Bowl Champion and holds the New York Giants single season receiving record.
Furthermore, Cruz will likely make $6-8 million a season once his new contract is negotiated, whereas Harris will make only $460,000 in 2013.
But that is precisely why Harris will be the more valuable player.
Harris will be the number three receiver for Dallas this fall. He is the most proven player on the squad at that position, and he showed great playmaking ability with the opportunities he was given last year.
He was second in the NFL in yards per punt return, taking over that job full time after Dallas realized he was better than Dez Bryant at the task.
Additionally, Harris covered punts and kicks—making several key tackles while doing so. He is a tough, physical player who will contribute any way he can.
I think Harris could gain over 1000 receiving yards playing in the slot, if he were featured like a Wes Welker. But Dallas has Dez Bryant, Miles Austin, Jason Witten and a clear intention to pass to more tight ends this season. For that reason alone, I am being conservative when projecting Harris’ contribution.
Projected Contribution for Harris in 2013
Receiving: 700 yards, five TDs
Returning kicks and punts: 720 total return yards
Additional contributions: covering kicks/making special teams tackles
Total contribution: 1420 yards and five TDs
Cost: $465,000
Cost per TD: $9,300
Cost per each receiving yard: $664
Projected Contribution for Cruz in 2013
Receiving: 1100 yards, seven TDs
Returning kicks and punts: 0
Additional contributions: annoying Salsa dancing, soup salesman
Total contribution: 1100 yards, seven TDs
Salary cost: $7,000,000
Cost per TD: $1,000,000
Cost per each receiving yard: $6,367
As I see it, Harris will contribute more positive yardage for Dallas in the coming season than Cruz will for the Giants. I still have Cruz contributing more touchdowns, but I don’t think the disparity will be that great.
But the costs per receiving yard and touchdown aren’t even close. Harris is a far, far greater value.
We know that Cruz is capable of a 1500-yard season and nine or 10 TDs, because he has done it before. But as a training camp holdout on a team with several other receiving options and a strong running game, his production is likely to slip again. In 2012, he was down 444 yards from 2011—his first year as a starter.
Now that Cruz’s contract talks are at a stalemate, it is very likely that he will miss part or most of training camp. This will increase the likelihood of him straining a hamstring when he does come back, while giving other receivers time to develop chemistry with Eli Manning. Cruz was placed on injured reserve in 2010 with a hamstring injury.
If this reminds you of Miles Austin, I’m way ahead of you.
Austin’s Break Out Year Production
Yards: 1320
Yards per reception: 16.3
TDs: 11
Austin’s Next Year Numbers
Yards: 1042
Yards per reception: 15.1
TDs: 7
Austin’s Average Production for 2011 & 2012
Yards: 761
Yards per reception: 13.9
TDs: 6.5
Victor Cruz’s Break Out Year
Yards: 1536
Yards per reception: 18.7
TDs: 9
Victor Cruz’s Next Year Numbers
Yards: 1092
Yards per reception: 12.7
TD’s: 10
Note that Cruz’s numbers fell further from his break out year to his next year than Austin’s numbers did.
The reality about Victor Cruz is that he is an exceptional playmaker, but he doesn’t have the body of work to demand a top-end contract. Granting him such a contract would be an enormous risk. The kind of risk that Jerry Jones took with Austin.
I love Austin and am one of his biggest supporters. I think he has been judged by his contract more than by his contributions, which is likely to happen to Cruz this season if the Giants cave and pay him more than Wes Welker.
I don't believe that much separates Cruz from Austin or Harris in terms of upside. They are all special players with the ball in their hands. But Austin wears the burden of heavy expectations built by two very good seasons that got him a lucrative contract. He endures the criticism of fans that want that production every year, despite the fact he is now a number two wide receiver.
Cruz is about to get a contract bigger than Austin's and will immediately assume the same burden. Meanwhile, Harris is poised for a break out year at a bargain price.
This season, Harris will be a much better value than Cruz. Not just in terms of cost per yard and cost per touchdown, but also in terms of total contributions on the field. My expectation is that Harris will continue to make important plays as a kick returner and special teams player in general, while showing a big jump in receiving yards and scoring this season.
And that makes him a more valuable player then Victor Cruz in 2013.
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